Pricing of Greek CDS, 10Y Bond Yields Sense Risk (CDS 399bps, 10Y 6.85%)

Interesting times folks.  Here is an update on Greece and Euro-land.  ZeroHedge has a detailed post showing a flow chart of potential scenarios (via Barclay's).  The recent move in the US Dollar Index above the 200dma could be related to all of this.  Remember institutions were building USD positions in Nov/Dec? Credit risk is reflected in Greek CDS as well as 10 Year Bond Yields.  CMA Datavision houses data on credit default swaps (insurance premium to protect against debt default) for a fee but provide most active wideners/tighteners, sovereign CDS and index fair values to the general public for free.  Greece 5 year CDS closed at 399.23 basis points on Friday, up from 175bps in November, 2009 (Chart).  Currently Dubai trades at 493.13bps and Venezuela at 1017.13 basis points!  It is a reminder of what happened in 2008 when Lehman, credit default swap sellers and counterparties all went bust.  Read the articles and watch the Davos video below.  From the first video, European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said Greece will NOT DEFAULT, there will be a "fiscal adjustment for imbalances".  I also put up a chart of the Greek 10 Year Yield hitting 6.85% on Friday, up from 4.6% in November, 2009.  It will be interesting to see what happens with EUR/USD and Gold when news is eventually sold.

News Links
Greek Debt Swap Counterparty Risk May ‘Spook’ Market (Bloomberg)
A Greek [Default/Bailout]: Flowcharting The Dominoes (
Who’s selling Greek CDS? (FT Alphaville)
Germany’s Bruederle Rules Out Bailout for Greece (Bloomberg)
BNPP: Domestic And Foreign Banks Exposed To Greece (
Greece 5-Year CDS Reaches New Record Wide Of 397 BPs -CMA (1/28/10, WSJ)
Randolph (IHS Global Insight) Says Greece Won't Default on Debt Obligations, CDS (Bloomberg Video)
Billionaire Soros Says Confident Greece ‘Will Make It’ (Bloomberg)
The Greece Dilemma (Nouriel Roubini at
Joaquin Almunia: we don't need a Greek bail-out because the country won't default (Telegraph)
2nd UPDATE: Greek-German 10-Year Yield Spread Hits New Highs (1/27/10, WSJ)
Greek 10-Yr GGB Spread Over Bunds Hits 300 BPs; CDS Widens(1/20/10, WSJ)

Below are Bloomberg videos at Davos featuring EU and Greek leaders.

EU's Almunia Says 'No Plan B' to Plug Greek Deficit"

Greece Prime Minister: Papandreou Says Rumors Hurt Greece, Not Seeking Aid

Greece Finance Minister Papaconstantinou at Davos, "May Make Deeper Budget Cuts"

Greek 10 Year Bond Yield (from Bloomberg)