IYT, SPY, DIA Set To Test 50 Day Moving Average, Gold Was Tell Last Night

The shorts on the risk trade got squeezed this morning. Gold was the tell last night when $XAU/USD (Gold spot) broke above its 50 day moving average and futures were up (I provided charts in comment section showing what happened). Well here we are today and SPY (S&P) is up 1.1% to 109.26, DIA (Dow) up 1.14% to 102.42 and IYT (Transports ETF) is up 1.67% to 71.98.

Below I provided 6 month charts of SPY, DIA and IYT. Depending on economic, financial and sovereign related catalysts ahead, for now it looks like they broke through the recent downtrend channel and are set to test the 50 day moving average. Ceiling resistance levels from late 2009 are right around the 50dma in each case. So today looks sort of like July, 2009.  If you remember the June/July correction it was really a technical mind f--k.  The S&P was riding a 50/200dma cross to the upside. The market decided to break below the 50dma AGAIN and faked a head and shoulders breakdown right at floor support and 200dma. After $SPY broke above 50dma resistance for the second time, it was finally time to load the boat.  Is it different this time!?  So I've learned that sometimes it takes a while for confirmation. Today $SPY's 200dma is at 101.96, 50dma at 110.85 and it's currently trading at 109.32.

Below I also provided the downtrend from 2007 which is another very important resistance level (which actually started this correction).  It hits around $113-114 depending on time.  Also check out the huge volume in SPY on February 5, about 500 million shares traded and formed a bullish hammer candlestick.  All of these charts are from stockcharts.com.


DIA (Diamonds or Dow ETF)

IYT (iShares DJ Transportation Average Index Fund)

SPY 3 Year Downtrend