Large $FXE Volume, Option Trade, USDX, Golden Crosses and Sunday Action (EUR/USD, $USDX, FXE, XAU/USD, Gold Continuous Contract, GLD)

Sunday night Gold, Euro and $USD report for 2/21/2010:  Btw, long US/CAD Olympic hockey (4-2).  Did you see the volume on FXE (Euro Trust Index ETF) Friday?  Over 3 million FXE shares traded on Friday (5.1 million on the week), a level not seen since Aug/September 2008.  Look at the volume blocks on Friday bringing up the gap down.  Tonight EUR/USD is up 0.35% breaking out on the 30-minute chart and XAU/USD is on the move.  So on Sunday at 8pm central it looks like a push out of the Dollar into the Euro and Gold.  Can't tell you what's going to happen tomorrow. 

From the charts below though the FXE trend is down, however, if Greece gets monster backing or a positive catalyst, short covering could break the closest downtrend and cause some damage.  There is another downtrend to test.  On this post (2/14) I gave you multiple FXE resistance levels for the longs to battle, including ceiling resistance, the 50dma, 200dma and downtrends (technical chess).  The weekly volume has been increasing with lower lows which is interesting.  Charts are from  Speculative shorts on the Euro contract hit a record, see link below.  What do you make of that?

FXE (Rydex CurrencyShares Euro Trust ETF (1-minute on Friday, Feb 19)

FXE (3 month, Daily w/ 50/200dma, squeeze range)

FXE 6 Month Daily Chart

FXE Weekly (rising volume)

Now a look at the US Dollar Index ($USDX, Friday), Gold Continuous Contract ($GOLD) and XAU/USD spot (Sunday).

$Gold continuous (weighted gold contract) is in a nice parallelogram downtrend channel.  If that level is broken, perhaps a 1,150 ceiling test, following the yellow brick road to judgment day (1,225).  RSI looks similar to the January rally AND the gold contract, GLD and XAU/USD spot are all above the 50 day moving average support level (with piercings).  With regards to the US Dollar Index it's close to the inverse of the Euro Index.  It has a golden cross working in its favor with the possibility of a 50dma support test (which means a Euro 50dma resistance test) and both would break their respective near term trends to do so.  If the USD rally keeps going after piercing the June 2009 highs, it will test 83 March resistance.  All of these levels just mean there's the potential for a weather change on the supply/demand (sellers/buyers) front.

$GOLD Continuous Future Contract (courtesy of

XAU/USD (courtesy of

$USD (US Dollar Index, Friday)

Here are a few links regarding the Euro, FXE and Dollar I stumbled upon:
Short-term Dollar Motive / Impulse Wave Still Strong (TheMarketDetective)
Euro's future in question even if Greece rescued- Soros (Reuters)
Euro ETF receives bullish trade-02/19/2010 (optionMONSTER via
Net Euro Speculative Positions Hit New Record At -59,422, A Change Of 2,270 (ZeroHedge)
Previous post:  Euro, US Dollar, Gold Move On Fed Discount Rate Decision
Precious Metals' Fake Rally or Beginning of Another Strong Move Up? (GoldSeek)

Do you have a projection?  Judgment day for the macro trade is near, position wisely.