GLD, SLV, GDXJ Above Resistance, Why Art Thou Lagging GDX? (Also Check Out Implied Volatility)

The fundamentals for precious metals continue to look good. The EU/IMF backstopped European sovereign debt with a trillion dollars of Euros, the Euro continues to sell off against the Dollar and gold (currency volatility), Freddie Mac needs an additional $10.6  billion in aid, Fannie Mae needs $8.4 billion and I'm starting to think municipalities might need help paying their bills as well (watching MCDX).  There is no doubt that fiat money dilution is putting a bid under precious metals, whether as a currency crisis hedge, inflation hedge or sh* hits the fan hedge.  Check out the charts of $GLD, $SLV, $GDX, $GDXJ, $HL and GLD, SLV implied volatility.

As of 12/31/2009, Soros and John Paulson owned GLD (Gold ETF) in size and the ETF is up 13% year to date (as of today's breakout) so not bad on billions.  We'll see if they kept GLD when they report their Q1 holdings (13F).  The Euro is being thrown to the wolves which explains the Gold and US Dollar marriage.  Some analysts think there will be a nasty divorce sooner or later, I'm watching the $USD:$GOLD ratio patiently.

Yesterday GLD (Gold ETF) took out the December 2009 high, today SLV (Silver ETF) took out ceiling resistance, GDXJ (Junior Gold Miners ETF) took out its highs and $GDX (Gold Miners) still has a battle ahead.  Why art thou lagging GDX?  GLD looks good, especially on the weekly, but traders might want confirmation.  I'd hedge GLD longs against potential reversal risk if I was betting the farm on this shiny yellow metal.  GLD implied volatility (put insurance) looks expensive though. What's IV implying?  A super spike or breakdown?  I did basic technical analysis on the charts below, including trends, support, resistance, relative strength and MACD (momentum) from

GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) Daily -

GLD Weekly

GDXJ (Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF)

GDX (Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF)

3-Month GLD Implied Volatility (

I'd rather watch SLV because it's still trading below ceiling resistance from 2008.  GLD took out that level in October of 2009.  I posted about this on March 17 (Why Did Gold Breakout and Not Silver, GLD, SLV and GLD:SLV Ratio).  SLV managed to pierce the near term ceiling today with decent strength.  You know who else likes silver? Eric Sprott of Sprott Asset Management.  He was very bullish on Silver the other day on CNBC.  Jim Iuorio thinks highly of silver today.  In the end, if SLV stays above $19.20 it could rally to $21 which is the 3/28/2008 high.  Above $21 would set SLV (silver) FREE and be a decent long in SIZE (in my opinion).  Protect yourself from wild HFT bots!

SLV (iShares Silver Trust) -

SLV Weekly

SLV Implied Volatility (

HL (Hecla Mining) - small cap silver mining company