GLD Decoupled From SPY, JJC, Joined Safe Haven Bid, GVZ Outperforming GLD! (Charts)

GLD made an interesting move this morning. It started trading in the red with $SPY (S&P) and $JJC (Copper), however, at 9:50am GLD decoupled from the S&P and Copper and joined the safe haven and deflation crew ($UUP (US Dollar ETF), $TLT (20+ Treasury Bond ETF), $VXX).  Look at the chart below. GLD is at a critical point, it is testing December 2009 support, May resistance, channel support and an ascending triangle inflection point. Hedge it up (see below). Today's action was also interesting because it pierced channel resistance in the morning, decoupled from the losers at 9:50am, and gathered enough strength to form a bullish tail into the close (although weak, +0.15% to $121.27). It showed GLD's resiliency when the safe haven/deflation bid was in play.

The expectation of 30-day volatility for GLD measured by the GVZ (CBOE Gold Volatility Index) was up 5.5% today (24.07) while GLD was unchanged, so the options are preparing for a move here (hedging with puts/leveraging with calls). In the past, except for the chop fest in the beginning of the year, GVZ moved up with GLD and went parabolic in expectation of a breakout. Was the initial GVZ spike from the 2009 symmetrical triangle breakout? GLD volatility would crash when GLD failed to deliver.

If I owned 31,500,000 shares of GLD betting on a breakout to $130 and beyond, I'd probably be insured with puts for protection (Aug, Sep in or at the $), just in case support gets violated and volatility erupts on the downside. Remember $USO (Oil) a few weeks ago? GLD puts were cheaper a few weeks ago though. Since June 16, $GVZ is up 15.5% and GLD is up 0.80%. Gold spot is up 0.30% to 1,242.62.

GLD decouples from SPY, JJC to join TLT, UUP (

GLD (with support/resistance levels, targets)

GVZ vs. GLD since June 16

GLD vs. GVZ Since June 2009 (