Top Default Probabilities: Venezuela, Pakistan, California, Illinois (CDS)

CMA Datavision has a Sovereign Risk Monitor which "identifies and ranks the world’s most volatile sovereign debt issuers according to percentage changes in their 5 year CDS" (Credit default swap). They also provide the "cumulatve probability of default" CPD% next to the CDS quote (Mid spread, priced in basis points).  Illinois and California made the "highest default probability" list today.  Venezuela topped the list with a 58% CPD%.  Pakistan should merge with Illinois to cut costs and leverage synergies, why not.  You can monitor the largest daily movers (overall, sovereigns and financials) and CDS index levels free at Hat tip @Ro_Patel for the update.  Credit default swaps are insurance contracts on a company's debt.  The contracts measure financial health risk of an entity and are privately structured and traded between hedge funds, insurance companies and banks.  States and Countries (sovereign debt) also have credit default swaps.  Basic transparency is a must here imho.

Entity Name Mid Spread CPD (%)
Venezuela 1359.27 58.41
Argentina 1065.47 49.74
Greece 833.20 49.63
Pakistan 769.20 39.70
Ukraine 613.77 34.01
Dubai/Emirate of 469.87 27.24
Iraq 403.10 24.26
Portugal 313.48 22.99
California/State of 298.71 22.78
Illinois/State of 302.24 22.67