S&P Technical Barriers (200 Week), S&P -0.40% YTD, 30-Year Treasury +11%! (TLT, $USB, SPY, $SPX)

2010 has been an interesting year so far for the S&P 500: 16.8% gain from February low, flash crash, 2.5 months of sideways action and a -0.40% return year-to-date. Not as interesting as Europe. The 30-Year Treasury bond is up 11% YTD, you should've listened to Gary Shilling! $TMF knocked out the bond vigilantes.

On a July 30 post I mentioned that the market was inside a technical box of madness. During the summer rally the S&P managed to poke a few holes. It broke out of its near-term descending channel, above its 200 day moving average (Friday) and is now testing the June high. The E-mini S&P Future is up 0.36% this morning, so $SPX could "spurt" higher as Art Cashin said on CNBC, but with overall topping action. If that's the case, it would (imo) be paired with a quick dump in the $USD (broke below 200DMA recently) and $VIX (below 200DMA and bouncing around support).

S&P Daily Chart

There are still technical barriers that need to be breached on the weekly chart in order for the S&P to hit James Altucher's 1,500 target. Look at the yellow and red lines below. The S&P has a new downtrend line from the 2007 peak, left shoulder resistance from the January 1,150 high and 200 week moving average resistance to overcome. The market peaked out at the 200 week moving average in April.

S&P 500 Weekly Chart Since 2002


I wanted to end this post with an article I read at MarketWatch about market timer Peter Eliades of StockMarket Cycles. He thinks the market "is now readying itself for a journey to a potentially major top within the next two-four weeks". Here's the link.

Crash of 2008 winner sees major top, Eliades says decades-old cycle set to resolve http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crash-of-2008-winner-calls-major-top-2010-08-09.

Eliades has been timing markets for a few decades now, successfully. I'm waiting to see a major trend confirmation here. Protect yo-self.