E-Mini S&P Future Technical Update (QE Trend Line, 200DMA), Senate Vote Tomorrow

source: optionsxpress
I'm watching the E-mini S&P future (ES) tonight because it's been making interesting moves during this debt ceiling volatility. The Senate votes tomorrow at noon on the bill, so watch how traders price in the progress. Last night when a "bipartisan agreement" was reached on the budget control bill, ES initially spiked 1.5% overnight and gapped up in the morning to test the 50 day moving average. But after weak economic data hit the wire (see below), the S&P lost all of its gains and closed in the red. So you can't always trust what happens overnight.

ES is currently down 0.47% overnight and pierced the QE2 uptrend line and 200DMA on my chart. I've been watching the S&P during the day and overnight mainly to see when it will start pricing in the next recession, or break bull market trend lines. GLD/SPY, or Gold priced in the S&P 500, has been an interesting ratio to watch recently (posts 1, 2).

U.S. Economy: Manufacturing Almost Stalls as Orders Drop" (Business Week)

"The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index slumped to 50.9, the lowest since July 2009, from 55.3 a month earlier, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said today. Figures less than 50 signal contraction, and the July index was lower than the most pessimistic forecast in a Bloomberg News survey."

Economy grinds to halt as consumers pull back (CNN Money) -from July 29, 2011

"Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation's economic health, rose at an annual rate of 1.3% in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said. 
While that's an increase from the revised 0.4% growth rate in the first three months of the year, it is hardly good news. The government originally reported that the economy grew at a 1.9% annualized rate in the first quarter."