Market Timers' McClellan and DeMark Are Cautious on the S&P

Tom McClellan, who runs the McClellan Market Report, thinks the S&P will trade "violently sideways" for the next four months. He was featured on Bloomberg TV on 2/6/2012: McClellan Says U.S. Stocks May Trade Sideways Until June. He mentioned that the Eurodollar futures commercials COT (commitment of traders) chart from last year correlates almost perfectly with the S&P 500 today. For more info on this, read his "Chart in Focus" post from 5/27/2011: Commercial Traders Foretell Market’s Movements. The correlation correctly predicted that the S&P would peak in early June and bottom out in October. This is amazing. On 2/3/2012, before his Bloomberg appearance, McClellan released a new warning: Eurodollar COT Indication Calls For Big Stock Market Top Now.

Tom DeMark, creator of the DeMark Indicators, told Bloomberg TV on 2/6/2012 that his 1,342 target on the S&P has been reached, and to "go to cash". DeMark predicted on 12/5/2011 that the S&P would top out in December between 1,330 and 1,345. There were technical barriers above that it needed to fight first (200 day moving average, downtrend), so it took a little longer than expected. DeMark was right on direction, but two months late. The S&P closed at 1,257 on 12/5/2011 and 1,344 on 2/6/2012, which is a 6.9% gain in two months. He told Bloomberg's Adam Johnson a few days ago that the S&P could spike to 1,375 if there was a bullish catalyst (economic data, Greece deal, etc). Below is a chart of the S&P and RSI from June 2010. A trend break will be a nice short when it occurs. Recently the S&P pierced through the downtrend line from the 2007-2011 peaks. Watching to see if it holds. In conclusion, two well known market timers are getting cautious on the market here. Protect yourself!

$SPX with RSI (